At last, a bridge of sorts to the future Feb 2nd 2006 | PORT-AU-PRINCE

At last, a bridge of sorts to the future

Feb 2nd 2006 PORT-AU-PRINCE
From The Economist print edition

A belated and perhaps chaotic milestone in an ill-starred international effort to create a democracy out of a failed state

THE streets of Port-au-Prince are decked out in campaign bunting. But there is little sign of many of the 34 candidates, either because they lack money or are scared of street violence. Even so, almost two years after a ragtag group of armed rebels precipitated the ousting of Jean-Bertrand Aristide as Haiti's president, the poorest and most chaotic country in the Americas is inching towards a presidential election. The vote, due on February 7th, is long overdue. It is taking place under the auspices of the United Nations and its force of 9,000 peacekeeping troops and police, but has been postponed four times.

If it goes ahead smoothly, the election looks set to be won by René Préval, a former president and once a close ally of Mr Aristide, a populist ex-priest who is now in exile in South Africa. That has led some Haitians to see sinister motives behind the postponements. Mr Aristide still protests bitterly at his removal from Haiti as American marines and French paratroops flew in, ostensibly to prevent a bloodbath, as the rebels marched on the capital.

In fact the delay appears to stem from the difficulty of organising a free and fair election in Haiti. Despite the UN's efforts, the country remains economically devastated. Large areas of the capital are racked by violence, crime and kidnapping.

The United States and the European Union have put up most of the money for identity cards for the 3.5m voters—the first-ever attempt to create a reliable electoral register. Gerardo Le Chevallier, an experienced Salvadorean who heads the UN's electoral team in Haiti, is confident of a fairly peaceful vote. Turnout may be low. But so it was when Mr Préval was elected in 1995—and it was even lower when Mr Aristide won a second term in 2000 in an election boycotted by the opposition.

To prevent fraud and ensure security, the UN persuaded local electoral officials to cut the number of voting centres by half, to 803. Some fear this may generate crowds and confusion. Some voters will have to walk for miles. Logistics are “very difficult”, concedes Mr Le Chevallier. His request to the United States for the loan of extra helicopters was turned down, so he has hired 280 mules to collect ballots from remote areas. That may delay the count.

Few Haitians seem optimistic that the election will mark a change in their fortunes. After decades of dictatorship, Mr Aristide's election inspired hope. He was overthrown by a coup in 1991; three years later, Bill Clinton sent 20,000 American troops to restore him to power. But Mr Aristide became increasingly despotic, relying on thuggish gangs to enforce his rule. Political instability and violence have conspired against economic development. Annual income per head is $390—less than it was in 1955 allowing for inflation.

The elections are taking place against a background of rising violence. Most of this appears to be non-political. It is concentrated in Cité Soleil, a vast and lawless slum between the airport and the centre of Port-au-Prince. The slum is a stronghold of gangs once loyal to Mr Aristide. The gangs have rendered the main highway, which runs nearby, unusable. That in turn has forced several local factories to close, with the loss of thousands of jobs.

Each day brings reports of looted businesses, kidnappings and killings. More than 1,500 people, including 78 local police and nine UN peacekeepers, have been killed since Mr Aristide's fall. Last December alone, two health posts run by Médecins Sans Frontières, a French charity, treated more than 220 gunshot victims. Nearly half were children, women or elderly. There were 247 reported kidnappings in December in Port-au-Prince.

“Our country is being wrecked,” says Charles Baker, a factory owner and a presidential candidate supported by business groups which led street protests that helped to bring down Mr Aristide. He blames the UN for not doing more against the gangs. Residents of Cité Soleil disagree. “We have nothing to eat or drink, and the UN is shooting at us,” said one. “They coop us up here and treat us like wild beasts.”

The UN troops are under constant fire from the gangs. The mission, led by Brazil and Chile, has been hampered from the start by lack of money, men and equipment. Juan Gabriel Valdés, the mission's head, says he needs armoured helicopters, night-vision goggles and radios for the troops, as well as money for social projects in the slums. He has resisted calls for operations in Cité Soleil of a kind that would cause large-scale civilian casualties.

Security has improved outside Port-au-Prince, allowing campaign rallies, though these are brief affairs with many bodyguards attending. Mr Préval has made the running, with 37% of the vote in the only credible opinion poll. “We need investment and jobs and for that we need peace,” he told a rally in St Marc, north-west of the capital. He promises universal primary education and better health care.

The poll put Mr Baker second, but with only 10%. He wants to restore the army, disbanded by Mr Aristide. He accuses Mr Préval of being Mr Aristide's “puppet”. Yet there is much evidence that the two fell out. Mr Préval's supporters accuse Mr Aristide of undermining his government, and of being behind the murder of two of his closest friends. Under Mr Aristide, “there was a lot of corruption,” says Mr Préval. Some of those responsible now face drugs charges in the United States.

If Mr Préval wins, as seems likely, he would at least enjoy legitimacy, which might give Haiti an opportunity to turn the corner. But if it is to seize the opportunity, the country will need continuing support from the outside world—preferably on a greater scale than it has received so far.